Automotive Aftermarket 1Q 2023 Report
The Q1 Automotive Aftermarket report provides commentary by sector within ...
The Q1 Automotive Aftermarket report provides commentary by sector within ...
The 1Q 2023 report explores current market trends and themes within the industry, including insights on deal activity, valuation multiples, and notable transactions.
The FOCUS Communications Service Provider Index (CSPI) managed a second straight reporting period in positive territory as it posted a three-month gain of 2.7%. While this was certainly a respectable gain, it still significantly underperformed both the 7.0% gain in the S&P 500 and the 16.8% increase in the NASDAQ over the corresponding time frame. Sector multiples were down somewhat and ended the period at 2.4x revenue and 6.4x EBITDA. This compares to sector multiples of 2.6x revenue and 7.4x EBITDA for the year-ago period.
The FOCUS Telecom Business Services Index (TBSI) continued the upward trend we noted in our winter report with a three-month gain of 10.9% for the spring reporting period. This outperformed the 7.0% gain in the S&P 500 but lagged the 16.8% gain in the NASDAQ. This period’s gains also pulled the sector into positive territory for the full year with a gain of 6.0%. This handily outperformed the broader indices, both of which were down sharply over the past year. Sector multiples are fairly consistent with this same time last year. The revenue multiple remained unchanged at 1.0x, while the EBITDA multiple ticked up slightly from 10.9x a year ago to 11.2x currently.
After posting a solid gain in our winter report, the FOCUS Carrier-Focused Telecom Technology Index (CFTTI) dropped 2.2% in our spring reporting period. This was slightly better than the 2.7% drop in the S&P 500, but worse than the 0.1% decline in the NASDAQ. The EFTTI is also down nearly 14% compared to this time last year. Over this time period, the EFTTI lagged the 9.2% decline in the S&P 500 but outperformed the 16.7% drop in the NASDAQ. Sector multiples are also lower than they were at this time last year. The sub sector revenue multiple dropped sharply from 2.5x to 2.1x, while the sector EBITDA multiple posted a more modest decline as it fell from 11.9x to 10.6x.
The FOCUS Enterprise-Focused Telecom Technology Index (EFTTI) experienced another disappointing reporting period with a three-month drop of 2.4%. This loss was in stark contrast to the broader indices as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were up 5.3% and 5.4%, respectively. The EFTTI is also trading 19.0% below the levels of a year ago. This significantly underperformed the 9.7% loss in the S&P 500 but was roughly in line with the 18.7% decline in the NASDAQ. Sector multiples closed out the period at 4.6x revenue and 19.5x EBITDA. Both of these are lower than the corresponding multiples of a year ago of 6.1x revenue and 23.4x EBITDA.
Business Services middle market mergers & acquisitions slowed in 2022, at least compared to 2021's record and probably unrepeatable volume.
In our Second Half 2022 report we discuss some of the major trends we are seeing in the market, and report on the M&A activity in the overall Supply Chain market. As before, we focus our public company analysis on the Supply Chain Technology and Supply Chain Logistics companies featuring key participants in each sector. Also, included is the list of 283 North American Supply Chain M&A transactions that have taken place since mid-2022.
After losing more than 25% in our fall report, the FOCUS Communications Service Provider Index (CSPI) turned things around and managed to deliver a three-month gain of 10.0%. This was better than the three-month gain for the S&P 500 of 7.1% and far superior to the 1.0% loss in the NASDAQ. Even so, the CSPI’s year-over-year performance remains dismal with a drop of 34.3%. This underperformed both the 19.4% loss in the S&P 500 as well as the 33.1% drop in the NASDAQ over the 12-month period. Sub sector multiples also dropped considerably compared to this time last year, falling from 2.7x revenue and 7.6x EBITDA a year ago to 2.2x revenue and 6.2x EBITDA currently.
Middle market business fundamentals remain strong, although some companies are starting to show caution. Revenue growth and hiring have been robust, although companies continue to face challenges in finding skilled workers. There remains a strong appetite for quality deals as valuations have declined slightly. Private equity firms still have about $1 trillion of “dry powder” and appear impatient to put some of that to work. M&A volume moderated slightly in the second half of 2022 and appears unlikely to duplicate 2021’s record pace, but is on track for another strong year.